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Patriots at Lions

NFL · Sunday, Nov 15 · 8:30 AM CT · FC Bayern Munich Stadium · neutral site · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 15

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Nov 1

Expected margin
NE by 1.4
Expected score
NE 27.6 – 26.2 DET
Expected total
53.9
PatriotsThe matchupLions
−139Our fair odds+139
27.6Expected points26.2
+0.49Power rating+0.36
22.9Points / game30.7
20.4Allowed / game27.5
375Total yards / game397
6.1Yards / play6.0
253Passing yards / game282
4−3Season record4−2
6−4Last 105−5
A.J. Brown WR · Harold Landry III LB
TreVeyon Henderson RB · Alijah Vera-Tucker G
Dell Pettus SOut (5 each)Giovanni Manu OT · Kerby Joseph S
Avonte Maddox CB · Ben Bartch G
Damone Clark LB

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NE chance · DET chance
Our model fair58.1%41.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NENew England Patriots−13958%————
DETDetroit Lions+13942%————
SpreadNE by 1.4
NENew England Patriots−1.4our margin————
DETDetroit Lions+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.9
Over53.9our total————
Under53.9our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 1.4 expected
New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 1%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 2%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 3%New England Patriots by 13 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 1%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 8 points: 2%New England Patriots by 7 points: 5%New England Patriots by 6 points: 3%New England Patriots by 5 points: 3%New England Patriots by 4 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 9%New England Patriots by 2 points: 2%New England Patriots by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 2%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 7%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 19 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 22 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 25 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%
← NE wins byDET wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more50%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more32%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.9 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.566%
Total over 53.549%
Total over 60.533%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 70% completions, 310 yds/game, 9 TD, 1 INTdepth chart
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 64% completions, 329 yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NE·DET
Oct 22 at CHI
last game
Oct 25 vs GB
23 days
days of rest
20 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
New England Patriots
NEA.J. Brown WR · ankleOut
NEHarold Landry III LB · undisclosedOut
NETreVeyon Henderson RB · illnessOut
NECarlton Davis III CB · neckQuestionable
NEChristian Elliss LB · chestQuestionable
NEAlijah Vera-Tucker G · hamstring, back about Nov 29IR
NEDell Pettus S · ankleIR
NEGreg Van Roten G · thighIR
NEJulian Hill TE · knee, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
NEKhalil Jacobs LB · undisclosedIR
and 7 more
Detroit Lions
DETGiovanni Manu OT · kneeOut
DETKerby Joseph S · kneeOut
DETRoger McCreary CB · footQuestionable
DETAvonte Maddox CB · left foot surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
DETBen Bartch G · foot, back about Nov 22IR
DETDamone Clark LB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
DETDevin White LB · forearm surgery, back about Nov 22IR
DETIsiah Pacheco RB · back, back about Dec 28IR
DETKendrick Law WR · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
DETPayton Turner DE · back, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 2 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
NE·DET
+0.49
rating (0 = average)
+0.36
22.9
points / game
30.7
20.4
points allowed / game
27.5
4−3
season record
4−2
3−0
home record
3−0
1−3
away record
1−2
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
375
total yards / game
397
6.1
yards / play
6.0
253
passing yards / game
282
122
rushing yards / game
115
21.1
first downs / game
24.7
2.0
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

NE · DET · 32 days
New England PatriotsDetroit Lions
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · DET 0−1
Oct 9, 2022at NENE 29 − 0

NE · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 22at CHI24 − 30L
Oct 18vs NYJ26 − 19W
Oct 11vs LV45 − 17W
Oct 4at BUF29 − 26W
Sep 27at JAX6 − 35L
Sep 20vs PIT20 − 3W
Sep 9at SEA10 − 13L
Feb 8vs SEA13 − 29L
Jan 25at DEN10 − 7W
Jan 18vs HOU28 − 16W

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 25vs GB20 − 17W
Oct 11at ARI45 − 21W
Oct 4at CAR26 − 32L
Sep 27vs NYJ31 − 24W
Sep 17at BUF31 − 41L
Sep 13vs NO31 − 30W
Jan 4at CHI19 − 16W
Dec 25, 2025at MIN10 − 23L
Dec 21, 2025vs PIT24 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at LAR34 − 41L