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49ers at Cowboys

NFL · Sunday, Nov 15 · 3:25 PM CT · AT&T Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 15

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Nov 1

Expected margin
SF by 6.8
Expected score
SF 32.3 – 25.5 DAL
Expected total
57.8
49ersThe matchupCowboys
−202Our fair odds+202
32.3Expected points25.5
+0.58Power rating−0.19
28.1Points / game27.0
19.9Allowed / game25.7
371Total yards / game354
6.4Yards / play5.6
244Passing yards / game259
6−1Season record3−4
7−3Last 104−6
Brandon Aiyuk WR · Isaac Guerendo RB
Alfred Collins DT · Andrew Farmer II DE
Austen Pleasants OTOut (5 each)Dee Winters LB · KaVontae Turpin WR
Devin Moore CB · Jalen Thompson S
Jonathan Bullard DT

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · DAL chance
Our model fair66.8%33.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco 49ers−20267%————
DALDallas Cowboys+20233%————
SpreadSF by 6.8
SFSan Francisco 49ers−6.8our margin————
DALDallas Cowboys+6.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 57.8
Over57.8our total————
Under57.8our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 6.8 expected
San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 5%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 8%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 5%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 39 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 40 points: <1%
← SF wins byDAL wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more65%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more47%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more39%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

57.8 expected
21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 1%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%97 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 50.566%
Total over 57.550%
Total over 64.534%
Total from 51 to 6432%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 68% completions, 247 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTdepth chart
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 59% completions, 262 yds/game, 5 TD, 4 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·DAL
Oct 25 at ATL
last game
Oct 26 at PHI
20 days
days of rest
19 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
San Francisco 49ers
SFBrandon Aiyuk WR · personal, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
SFIsaac Guerendo RB · pectoral surgeryOut
SFBrett Toth C · concussionQuestionable
SFChristian McCaffrey RB · left hamstringQuestionable
SFDeebo Samuel Sr. WR · right hamstringQuestionable
SFGarret Wallow LB · hamstring strainQuestionable
SFLuke Gifford LB · groinQuestionable
SFMarques Sigle S · ankleQuestionable
SFMike Evans WR · right achilles tendinitisQuestionable
SFNick Bosa DE · left knee strainQuestionable
and 15 more
Dallas Cowboys
DALDee Winters LB · calf strainOut
DALKaVontae Turpin WR · ribsOut
DALGeorge Pickens WR · shoulderQuestionable
DALKenny Clark DT · backQuestionable
DALLuke Schoonmaker TE · groinQuestionable
DALP.J. Locke S · right foot plantar fasciitisQuestionable
DALDevin Moore CB · hipIR
DALJalen Thompson S · hamstringIR
DALJonathan Bullard DT · calfIR
DALKelvin Gilliam Jr. DT · triceps, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 4 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
SF·DAL
+0.58
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
28.1
points / game
27.0
19.9
points allowed / game
25.7
6−1
season record
3−4
4−0
home record
1−2
2−1
away record
2−2
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
371
total yards / game
354
6.4
yards / play
5.6
244
passing yards / game
259
127
rushing yards / game
94
21.3
first downs / game
23.6
1.4
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

SF · DAL · 32 days
San Francisco 49ersDallas Cowboys
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 4 meetings · DAL 0−4
Oct 27, 2024at SFSF 30 − 24
Oct 8, 2023at SFSF 42 − 10
Jan 22, 2023at SFSF 19 − 12post
Jan 16, 2022at DALSF 23 − 17post

SF · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Oct 25at ATL20 − 29L
Oct 19vs WSH23 − 17W
Oct 11at SEA32 − 29W
Oct 4vs DEN24 − 14W
Sep 27vs ARI36 − 30W
Sep 20vs MIA35 − 13W
Sep 10at LAR27 − 7W
Jan 17at SEA6 − 41L
Jan 11at PHI23 − 19W
Jan 3vs SEA3 − 13L

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 26at PHI38 − 21W
Oct 18at GB13 − 23L
Oct 8vs TB16 − 24L
Oct 4at HOU34 − 30W
Sep 27vs BAL31 − 34L
Sep 20vs WSH37 − 20W
Sep 13at NYG20 − 28L
Jan 4at NYG17 − 34L
Dec 25, 2025at WSH30 − 23W
Dec 21, 2025vs LAC17 − 34L