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Chargers at Ravens

NFL · Monday, Nov 16 · 7:15 PM CT · M&T Bank Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 16

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Nov 13

Expected margin
BAL by 4.1
Expected score
BAL 21.9 – 17.8 LAC
Expected total
39.7
ChargersThe matchupRavens
+188Our fair odds−188
17.8Expected points21.9
−0.67Power rating−0.16
15.1Points / game21.0
27.4Allowed / game26.2
292Total yards / game326
4.7Yards / play5.4
177Passing yards / game188
0−8Season record4−5
0−10Last 104−6
Isaiah World OT · Alec Ingold FB
David Njoku TE · Denzel Perryman LB
Derwin James Jr. SOut (5 each)Gerad Lichtenhan OT · Adam Randall RB
Bilhal Kone CB · Danny Pinter C
Durham Smythe TE

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · BAL chance
Our model fair34.8%65.2%
Kalshi36.6%68.5%
Polymarket US35.9%68.6%
ProphetX36.0%67.3%
Novig35.0%66.0%
Full price table
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi2:25 AM CTPolymarket US2:25 AM CTProphetX2:05 AM CTNovig2:21 AM CT
Moneyline
LACLos Angeles Chargers+18835%+17336.6%+17935.9%+17836.0%+18635.0%
BALBaltimore Ravens−18865%−21868.5%−21968.6%−20667.3%−19466.0%
SpreadBAL by 4.1
LACLos Angeles Chargers+4.1our margin+4.5 −11653.7%+4.5 −11252.9%+4.5 −11553.6%+4.5 −10852.0%
BALBaltimore Ravens−4.1our margin−4.5 −10350.7%−4.5 −11052.4%−4.5 −10150.3%−4.5 +10648.5%
Totalwe expect 39.7
Over39.7our totalo39.5 −10751.8%o39.5 −10651.4%o39.5 −10150.3%o39.5 +10449.0%
Under39.7our totalu39.5 −11653.7%u39.5 −11954.4%u39.5 −11553.6%u39.5 −11152.5%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 4.1 expected
Los Angeles Chargers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 8%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 7%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 41 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 42 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 43 points: <1%
← LAC wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more55%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more39%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more31%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,430 past NFL games.

Total range

39.7 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.570%
Total over 39.549%
Total over 46.529%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,430 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 64% completions, 218 yds/game, 1 TD, 4 INTdepth chart
BALJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 58% completions, 203 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·BAL
Nov 8 vs HOU
last game
Nov 5 vs JAX
7 days
days of rest
10 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Los Angeles Chargers
LACIsaiah World OT · left kneeOut
LACAlex Harkey G · foot, back about Nov 16Questionable
LACBranson Taylor G · ankle, back about Nov 16Questionable
LACBrenen Thompson WR · quadriceps, back about Nov 16Questionable
LACCam Hart CB · ankle, back about Nov 16Questionable
LACDeane Leonard CB · concussion, back about Nov 16Questionable
LACIsas Waxter CB · ankle, back about Nov 16Questionable
LACJustin Eboigbe DT · ankle, back about Nov 16Questionable
LACKayode Awosika G · lower leg, back about Nov 16Questionable
LACKeaton Mitchell RB · hip, back about Nov 16Questionable
and 13 more
Baltimore Ravens
BALGerad Lichtenhan OT · undisclosed, back about Dec 13Out
BALAdisa Isaac LB · hamstringQuestionable
BALJaylinn Hawkins S · left knee, back about Nov 16Questionable
BALOlaivavega Ioane G · knee, back about Nov 16Questionable
BALRashod Bateman WR · calf, back about Nov 16Questionable
BALAdam Randall RB · neckIR
BALBilhal Kone CB · lower bodyIR
BALDanny Pinter C · right knee surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
BALDurham Smythe TE · achilles surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
BALEthan Pocic C · kneeIR
and 7 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
LAC·BAL
−0.67
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
15.1
points / game
21.0
27.4
points allowed / game
26.2
0−8
season record
4−5
0−4
home record
1−3
0−4
away record
3−2
L8
streak
L4
0−10
last 10
4−6
292
total yards / game
326
4.7
yards / play
5.4
177
passing yards / game
188
114
rushing yards / game
138
16.4
first downs / game
17.6
2.4
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

LAC · BAL · 44 days
Los Angeles ChargersBaltimore Ravens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · BAL 3−0
Nov 25, 2024at LACBAL 30 − 23
Nov 26, 2023at LACBAL 20 − 10
Oct 17, 2021at BALBAL 34 − 6

LAC · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Nov 8vs HOU22 − 44L
Nov 1at LAR9 − 24L
Oct 18at KC6 − 22L
Oct 11vs DEN17 − 23L
Oct 4at SEA23 − 30L
Sep 27at BUF16 − 24L
Sep 20vs LV14 − 26L
Sep 13vs ARI14 − 26L
Jan 11at NE3 − 16L
Jan 4at DEN3 − 19L

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Nov 5vs JAX10 − 33L
Nov 1at BUF10 − 36L
Oct 25vs CIN13 − 35L
Oct 18at CLE10 − 13L
Oct 11at ATL30 − 23W
Oct 4vs TEN24 − 18W
Sep 27at DAL34 − 31W
Sep 20vs NO17 − 24L
Sep 13at IND41 − 23W
Jan 4at PIT24 − 26L