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Ravens at Bills

NFL · Sunday, Nov 1 · 12:00 PM CT · Highmark Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 1

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
BUF by 3.2
Expected score
BUF 29.2 – 26.0 BAL
Expected total
55.2
RavensThe matchupBills
+163Our fair odds−163
26.0Expected points29.2
+0.08Power rating+0.70
24.1Points / game32.8
23.9Allowed / game28.5
366Total yards / game388
5.9Yards / play6.5
225Passing yards / game239
4−3Season record5−1
5−5Last 107−3
Jaylinn Hawkins S · Olaivavega Ioane G
Adam Randall RB · Bilhal Kone CB
Danny Pinter COutDorian Strong CB · Tyrell Shavers WR
Jordan Hancock CB · Zane Durant DT

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · BUF chance
Our model fair38.1%61.9%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket US39.6%63.9%
ProphetX39.7%62.9%
Novig38.5%62.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:18 AM CTPolymarket US4:17 AM CTProphetX4:17 AM CTNovig3:53 AM CT
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Ravens+16338%+14640.7%+15239.6%+15239.7%+16038.5%
BUFBuffalo Bills−16362%−17563.6%−17763.9%−16962.9%−16362.0%
SpreadBUF by 3.2
BALBaltimore Ravens+3.2our margin+3.5 −12655.7%+3.5 −12655.7%+3.5 −12154.8%+3.5 −11754.0%
BUFBuffalo Bills−3.2our margin−3.5 +10548.7%−3.5 +10748.2%−3.5 +11047.6%−3.5 +11546.5%
Totalwe expect 55.2
Over55.2our totalo54.5 −10350.7%o54.5 −10350.7%o54.5 −10050.0%o54.5 +10449.0%
Under55.2our totalu54.5 −11653.7%u54.5 −11453.2%u54.5 −11152.7%u54.5 −10651.5%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 3.2 expected
Baltimore Ravens by 42 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 41 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 8%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 2%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 7%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 40 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 41 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 42 points: <1%
← BAL wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more52%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more36%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

55.2 expected
19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 1%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 2%72 points: 1%73 points: 2%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 48.564%
Total over 55.548%
Total over 62.532%
Total from 49 to 6232%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 72% completions, 214 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTdepth chart
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 68% completions, 239 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·BUF
Oct 25 vs CIN
last game
Oct 18 at LV
6 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Baltimore Ravens
BALJaylinn Hawkins S · knee, back about Nov 5Out
BALOlaivavega Ioane G · right knee - mcl sprain, back about Nov 5Out
BALAdam Randall RB · neck, back about Nov 1IR
BALBilhal Kone CB · lower bodyIR
BALDanny Pinter C · right knee surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
BALDurham Smythe TE · achilles surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
BALEthan Pocic C · knee, back about Nov 1IR
BALJahquez Robinson S · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
BALJovaughn Gwyn G · ankle surgery, back about Dec 13IR
BALSkylar Thompson QB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 2 more
Buffalo Bills
BUFC.J. Gardner-Johnson S · suspension, back about Nov 9Suspension
BUFDorian Strong CB · neck, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
BUFTyrell Shavers WR · knee - acl surgery, back about Nov 9Out
BUFDJ Moore WR · shoulder - ac joint sprain, back about Nov 1Questionable
BUFDalton Kincaid TE · chest, back about Nov 1Questionable
BUFDee Alford CB · ankle, back about Nov 1Questionable
BUFGreg Gaines DT · calf, back about Nov 1Questionable
BUFSpencer Brown OT · back, back about Nov 1Questionable
BUFTJ Parker LB · knee, back about Nov 1Questionable
BUFTe'Cory Couch CB · hamstringQuestionable
and 2 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
BAL·BUF
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.70
24.1
points / game
32.8
23.9
points allowed / game
28.5
4−3
season record
5−1
1−2
home record
2−1
3−1
away record
3−0
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
366
total yards / game
388
5.9
yards / play
6.5
225
passing yards / game
239
142
rushing yards / game
149
19.7
first downs / game
23.8
0.7
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

BAL · BUF · 30 days
Baltimore RavensBuffalo Bills
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 4 meetings · BUF 3−1
Sep 7, 2025at BUFBUF 41 − 40
Jan 19, 2025at BUFBUF 27 − 25post
Sep 29, 2024at BALBAL 35 − 10
Oct 2, 2022at BALBUF 23 − 20

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 25vs CIN13 − 35L
Oct 18at CLE10 − 13L
Oct 11at ATL30 − 23W
Oct 4vs TEN24 − 18W
Sep 27at DAL34 − 31W
Sep 20vs NO17 − 24L
Sep 13at IND41 − 23W
Jan 4at PIT24 − 26L
Dec 27, 2025at GB41 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025vs NE24 − 28L

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Oct 18at LV33 − 30W
Oct 12at LAR37 − 34W
Oct 4vs NE26 − 29L
Sep 27vs LAC24 − 16W
Sep 17vs DET41 − 31W
Sep 13at HOU36 − 31W
Jan 17at DEN30 − 33L
Jan 11at JAX27 − 24W
Jan 4vs NYJ35 − 8W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI12 − 13L