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Pacers at Grizzlies

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 4 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 4

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
MEM by 5.1
Expected score
MEM 121.1 – 116.0 IND
Expected total
237.2
PacersThe matchupGrizzlies
+178Our fair odds−178
116.0Expected points121.1
−0.82Power rating−0.36
115.0Points / game118.2
114.8Allowed / game106.2
47.2FG%45.6
30.63P%40.0
44.0Rebounds / game50.4
2−3Season record5−0
3−7Last 105−5
Ben Sheppard G · Ivica Zubac C
Johnny Furphy G · T.J. McConnell G
Tyrese Haliburton GOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · MEM chance
Our model fair35.9%64.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+17836%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−17864%————
SpreadMEM by 5.1
INDIndiana Pacers+5.1our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.2
Over237.2our total————
Under237.2our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 5.1 expected
Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%
← IND wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more54%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more39%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.2 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.567%
Total over 237.548%
Total over 247.530%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Indiana Pacers
GKelly Oubre Jr.last game
GAndrew Nembhardlast game
GAaron Nesmithlast game
FPascal Siakamlast game
CJay Hufflast game
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromelast game
FCedric Cowardlast game
FCameron Boozerlast game
FJaylen Wellslast game
CZach Edeylast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·MEM
Oct 30 at MIA
last game
Oct 29 at POR
4 days
days of rest
5 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Indiana Pacers
INDBen Sheppard G · left knee, back about Jan 2, 2027Out
INDIvica Zubac C · left ankle sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy G · right knee surgery, back about Jan 2, 2027Out
INDT.J. McConnell G · right hamstring strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton G · left hamstring strain, back about Nov 13Out
INDAaron Nesmith G · hamstringDay-to-day
INDAndrew Nembhard G · neck sorenessDay-to-day
INDObi Toppin F · backDay-to-day
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMQuinten Post C · right ankleDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
IND·MEM
−0.82
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
115.0
points / game
118.2
114.8
points allowed / game
106.2
2−3
season record
5−0
0−2
home record
1−0
2−1
away record
4−0
L2
streak
W5
3−7
last 10
5−5
47.2
FG%
45.6
30.6
3P%
40.0
44.0
rebounds / game
50.4
29.4
assists / game
26.4
15.4
turnovers / game
15.8
55.2
points in paint / game
46.0

Rating Trend

IND · MEM · 10 days
Indiana PacersMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 8−2
Mar 1at INDMEM 125 − 106
Oct 25, 2025at MEMMEM 128 − 103
Feb 20, 2025at INDIND 127 − 113
Dec 1, 2024at MEMMEM 136 − 121
Jan 28, 2024at INDIND 116 − 110
Dec 21, 2023at MEMMEM 116 − 103
Jan 29, 2023at MEMMEM 112 − 100
Jan 14, 2023at INDMEM 130 − 112
Mar 24, 2022at MEMMEM 133 − 103
Mar 15, 2022at INDMEM 135 − 102

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 28vs PHI109 − 114L
Oct 26at MIL102 − 110L
Oct 25at BKN136 − 109W
Oct 23vs DAL105 − 121L
Oct 21at NO123 − 120W
Apr 12vs DET121 − 133L
Apr 10vs PHI94 − 105L
Apr 9at BKN123 − 94W
Apr 7vs MIN104 − 124L
Apr 5at CLE108 − 117L

MEM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W5
Oct 29at POR124 − 103W
Oct 26at UTAH110 − 105W
Oct 25at SAC123 − 112W
Oct 23at GS111 − 108W
Oct 21vs UTAH123 − 103W
Apr 12at HOU101 − 132L
Apr 10at UTAH101 − 147L
Apr 8at DEN119 − 136L
Apr 6vs CLE126 − 142L
Apr 5at MIL115 − 131L