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Jazz at Mavericks

NBA · Friday, Nov 6 · 7:00 PM CT · American Airlines Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 6

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
DAL by 7.1
Expected score
DAL 125.8 – 118.7 UTAH
Expected total
244.4
JazzThe matchupMavericks
+219Our fair odds−219
118.7Expected points125.8
−1.00Power rating−0.34
112.4Points / game114.0
120.2Allowed / game112.0
45.2FG%49.2
33.43P%35.2
46.8Rebounds / game44.2
1−4Season record3−2
2−8Last 105−5
Blake Hinson F · Jaren Jackson Jr. F
Jusuf Nurkic C · Trey Alexander GOut (4 each)Dereck Lively II C · Santi Aldama F
Sergio de Larrea F · Tarik Biberovic F

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · DAL chance
Our model fair31.4%68.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+21931%————
DALDallas Mavericks−21969%————
SpreadDAL by 7.1
UTAHUtah Jazz+7.1our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks−7.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 244.4
Over244.4our total————
Under244.4our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 7.1 expected
Utah Jazz by 49 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more59%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more44%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

244.4 expected
193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: <1%209 points: <1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 1%229 points: 1%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 2%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: 1%278 points: 1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%306 points: <1%307 points: <1%308 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 234.567%
Total over 244.548%
Total over 254.531%
Total from 235 to 25436%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Utah Jazz
GJosh Greenlast game
GKeyonte Georgelast game
GAce Baileylast game
GDarryn Petersonlast game
CJaxson Hayeslast game
Dallas Mavericks
GKyrie Irvinglast game
GMax Christielast game
FDaniel Gaffordlast game
FP.J. Washingtonlast game
FCooper Flagglast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·DAL
Oct 28 vs SA
last game
Oct 30 vs HOU
8 days
days of rest
6 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Utah Jazz
UTAHBlake Hinson F · left hamstring strainOut
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. F · right knee, back about Dec 14Out
UTAHJusuf Nurkic C · right footOut
UTAHTrey Alexander G · left knee bruiseOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen F · right wristDay-to-day
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II C · right foot surgeryOut
DALSanti Aldama F · right knee surgeryOut
DALSergio de Larrea F · right knee strainOut
DALTarik Biberovic F · right heel inflammationOut
DALNaji Marshall F · illnessDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
UTAH·DAL
−1.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.34
112.4
points / game
114.0
120.2
points allowed / game
112.0
1−4
season record
3−2
1−3
home record
1−1
0−1
away record
2−1
L3
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
5−5
45.2
FG%
49.2
33.4
3P%
35.2
46.8
rebounds / game
44.2
26.8
assists / game
27.6
17.2
turnovers / game
17.0
47.6
points in paint / game
50.8

Rating Trend

UTAH · DAL · 10 days
Utah JazzDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 6−4
Jan 17at DALDAL 138 − 120
Jan 15at DALDAL 144 − 122
Jan 8at UTAHUTAH 116 − 114
Dec 15, 2025at UTAHUTAH 140 − 133
Nov 30, 2024at UTAHDAL 106 − 94
Nov 14, 2024at UTAHUTAH 115 − 113
Oct 28, 2024at DALDAL 110 − 102
Mar 25, 2024at UTAHDAL 115 − 105
Mar 21, 2024at DALDAL 113 − 97
Jan 1, 2024at UTAHUTAH 127 − 90

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Oct 28vs SA111 − 117L
Oct 26vs MEM105 − 110L
Oct 25vs LAL123 − 132L
Oct 23vs NO120 − 119W
Oct 21at MEM103 − 123L
Apr 12at LAL107 − 131L
Apr 10vs MEM147 − 101W
Apr 7at NO137 − 156L
Apr 5at OKC111 − 146L
Apr 3at HOU106 − 140L

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 28vs OKC120 − 96W
Oct 26at MIA113 − 109W
Oct 24vs SA106 − 122L
Oct 23at IND121 − 105W
Oct 21at HOU110 − 128L
Apr 12vs CHI149 − 128W
Apr 10at SA120 − 139L
Apr 8at PHX107 − 112L
Apr 7at LAC103 − 116L
Apr 5vs LAL134 − 128W