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Cardinals at Cowboys

NFL · Sunday, Nov 1 · 12:00 PM CT · AT&T Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 1

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
DAL by 6.1
Expected score
DAL 31.0 – 24.8 ARI
Expected total
55.8
CardinalsThe matchupCowboys
+273Our fair odds−273
24.8Expected points31.0
−0.67Power rating−0.19
20.3Points / game27.0
29.7Allowed / game25.7
314Total yards / game354
4.5Yards / play5.6
218Passing yards / game259
2−5Season record3−4
2−8Last 104−6
Jon Gaines II G · Tip Reiman TE
Walter Nolen III DT · Chase Bisontis G
Hunter Long TEOut (5 each)Dee Winters LB · KaVontae Turpin WR
Devin Moore CB · Jalen Thompson S
Jonathan Bullard DT

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · DAL chance
Our model fair26.8%73.2%
Kalshi27.3%76.3%
Polymarket US27.1%75.8%
ProphetX27.1%75.5%
Novig25.5%75.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:21 AM CTPolymarket US4:21 AM CTProphetX4:17 AM CTNovig4:11 AM CT
Moneyline
ARIArizona Cardinals+27327%+26627.3%+26927.1%+26927.1%+29225.5%
DALDallas Cowboys−27373%−32276.3%−31475.8%−30875.5%−30075.0%
SpreadDAL by 6.1
ARIArizona Cardinals+6.1our margin+6.5 +10548.7%+6.5 +10748.2%+6.5 +10848.0%+6.5 +11546.5%
DALDallas Cowboys−6.1our margin−6.5 −12655.7%−6.5 −12655.7%−6.5 −12154.8%−6.5 −11754.0%
Totalwe expect 55.8
Over55.8our totalo54.5 −11252.7%o54.5 −11252.7%o54.5 −10751.7%o54.5 −10651.5%
Under55.8our totalu54.5 −10751.8%u54.5 −10551.2%u54.5 −10551.2%u54.5 +10449.0%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Cowboys by 6.1 expected
Arizona Cardinals by 46 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 45 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 44 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 43 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 42 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 41 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 7%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 7%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 39 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 40 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 41 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 42 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 43 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 44 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 45 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 46 points: <1%
← ARI wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Cowboys wins by 3 or more60%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 7 or more45%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 10 or more36%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

55.8 expected
19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 2%72 points: 1%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 48.566%
Total over 55.549%
Total over 62.533%
Total from 49 to 6232%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 62% completions, 261 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTdepth chart
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 59% completions, 262 yds/game, 5 TD, 4 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·DAL
Oct 25 vs DEN
last game
Oct 26 at PHI
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Arizona Cardinals
ARIJon Gaines II G · ankle, back about Nov 8Out
ARITip Reiman TE · right ankle, back about Nov 1Out
ARIWalter Nolen III DT · ankle, back about Nov 8Out
ARIAndrew Wingard S · knee bruise, back about Nov 1Questionable
ARIHjalte Froholdt C · knee, back about Nov 1Questionable
ARIJosh Minkins SQuestionable
ARIMax Melton CB · knee, back about Nov 1Questionable
ARIXavier Weaver WRQuestionable
ARIChase Bisontis G · left knee - mcl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
ARIHunter Long TE · knee, back about Nov 8IR
and 9 more
Dallas Cowboys
DALDee Winters LB · calf strain, back about Nov 8Out
DALKaVontae Turpin WR · ribs, back about Nov 8Out
DALGeorge Pickens WR · shoulder, back about Nov 1Questionable
DALLuke Schoonmaker TE · groin, back about Nov 1Questionable
DALDevin Moore CB · hipIR
DALJalen Thompson S · hamstring, back about Nov 1IR
DALJonathan Bullard DT · calf, back about Nov 1IR
DALKelvin Gilliam Jr. DT · triceps, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
DALMalik Davis RB · hip surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
DALMarist Liufau LB · left forearm fracture, back about Nov 1IR
and 3 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
ARI·DAL
−0.67
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
20.3
points / game
27.0
29.7
points allowed / game
25.7
2−5
season record
3−4
0−3
home record
1−2
2−2
away record
2−2
L1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
4−6
314
total yards / game
354
4.5
yards / play
5.6
218
passing yards / game
259
96
rushing yards / game
94
20.7
first downs / game
23.6
0.9
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

ARI · DAL · 30 days
Arizona CardinalsDallas Cowboys
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · DAL 0−3
Nov 3, 2025at DALARI 27 − 17
Sep 24, 2023at ARIARI 28 − 16
Jan 2, 2022at DALARI 25 − 22

ARI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 25vs DEN16 − 30L
Oct 18at LAR18 − 16W
Oct 11vs DET21 − 45L
Oct 4at NYG24 − 36L
Sep 27at SF30 − 36L
Sep 20vs SEA7 − 31L
Sep 13at LAC26 − 14W
Jan 4at LAR20 − 37L
Dec 28, 2025at CIN14 − 37L
Dec 21, 2025vs ATL19 − 26L

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 26at PHI38 − 21W
Oct 18at GB13 − 23L
Oct 8vs TB16 − 24L
Oct 4at HOU34 − 30W
Sep 27vs BAL31 − 34L
Sep 20vs WSH37 − 20W
Sep 13at NYG20 − 28L
Jan 4at NYG17 − 34L
Dec 25, 2025at WSH30 − 23W
Dec 21, 2025vs LAC17 − 34L