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Patriots at Dolphins

NFL · Sunday, Nov 1 · 3:25 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 1

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
NE by 8.5
Expected score
NE 25.7 – 17.2 MIA
Expected total
43.0
PatriotsThe matchupDolphins
−315Our fair odds+315
25.7Expected points17.2
+0.49Power rating−0.59
22.9Points / game16.3
20.4Allowed / game26.2
375Total yards / game294
6.1Yards / play5.2
253Passing yards / game162
4−3Season record1−5
6−4Last 102−8
Harold Landry III LB · Alijah Vera-Tucker G
Dell Pettus S · Greg Van Roten G
Julian Hill TEOut (5 each)Darrell Baker Jr. CB · Kadyn Proctor OT
Cole Turner TE · De'Von Achane RB
Rene Konga DT

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NE chance · MIA chance
Our model fair75.9%24.1%
Kalshi77.3%25.3%
Polymarket US77.0%25.8%
ProphetX76.4%26.2%
Novig76.0%24.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:19 AM CTPolymarket US4:19 AM CTProphetX4:17 AM CTNovig4:11 AM CT
Moneyline
NENew England Patriots−31576%−34077.3%−33577.0%−32376.4%−31776.0%
MIAMiami Dolphins+31524%+29625.3%+28825.8%+28226.2%+30824.5%
SpreadNE by 8.5
NENew England Patriots−8.5our margin−6.5 −12655.7%−6.5 −12856.2%−6.5 −11754.0%−6.5 −11353.0%
MIAMiami Dolphins+8.5our margin+6.5 +10548.7%+6.5 +11047.7%+6.5 +10748.2%+6.5 +11147.5%
Totalwe expect 43.0
Over43.0our totalo42.5 −12154.7%o42.5 −12154.7%o42.5 −11653.8%o42.5 −11353.0%
Under43.0our totalu42.5 +10149.7%u42.5 +10149.7%u42.5 +10449.1%u42.5 +10848.0%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 8.5 expected
New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: 1%New England Patriots by 34 points: 1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 1%New England Patriots by 30 points: 1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 3%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: 1%New England Patriots by 25 points: 2%New England Patriots by 24 points: 3%New England Patriots by 23 points: 3%New England Patriots by 22 points: 2%New England Patriots by 21 points: 3%New England Patriots by 20 points: 2%New England Patriots by 19 points: 2%New England Patriots by 18 points: 2%New England Patriots by 17 points: 4%New England Patriots by 16 points: 2%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 5%New England Patriots by 13 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 1%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 8 points: 2%New England Patriots by 7 points: 5%New England Patriots by 6 points: 3%New England Patriots by 5 points: 3%New England Patriots by 4 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 8%New England Patriots by 2 points: 2%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 1%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 5%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%
← NE wins byMIA wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more69%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more53%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more45%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.0 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.570%
Total over 42.549%
Total over 49.530%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 70% completions, 310 yds/game, 9 TD, 1 INTdepth chart
MIAMalik Willis · last 3 games: 58% completions, 143 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NE·MIA
Oct 22 at CHI
last game
Oct 25 at NYJ
9 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
New England Patriots
NEHarold Landry III LB · undisclosedOut
NEA.J. Brown WR · knee, back about Nov 1Questionable
NECarlton Davis III CB · neck, back about Nov 1Questionable
NEChristian Elliss LB · chest, back about Nov 1Questionable
NETreVeyon Henderson RB · illness, back about Nov 1Questionable
NEAlijah Vera-Tucker G · hamstring, back about Nov 29IR
NEDell Pettus S · ankleIR
NEGreg Van Roten G · thigh, back about Nov 1IR
NEJulian Hill TE · knee, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
NEKhalil Jacobs LB · undisclosedIR
and 7 more
Miami Dolphins
MIADarrell Baker Jr. CB · undisclosedOut
MIAKadyn Proctor OT · concussion, back about Nov 8Out
MIAJuJu Brents CB · concussion, back about Nov 1Questionable
MIAReese Taylor CB · quadriceps, back about Nov 1Questionable
MIACole Turner TE · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
MIADe'Von Achane RB · left knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
MIARene Konga DT · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
MIARonnie Harrison Jr. LB · hamstringIR
MIATrey Moore LB · ankle surgeryIR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
NE·MIA
+0.49
rating (0 = average)
−0.59
22.9
points / game
16.3
20.4
points allowed / game
26.2
4−3
season record
1−5
3−0
home record
0−2
1−3
away record
1−3
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
2−8
375
total yards / game
294
6.1
yards / play
5.2
253
passing yards / game
162
122
rushing yards / game
132
21.1
first downs / game
16.7
2.0
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

NE · MIA · 30 days
New England PatriotsMiami Dolphins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 7−3
Jan 4at NENE 38 − 10
Sep 14, 2025at MIANE 33 − 27
Nov 24, 2024at MIAMIA 34 − 15
Oct 6, 2024at NEMIA 15 − 10
Oct 29, 2023at MIAMIA 31 − 17
Sep 17, 2023at NEMIA 24 − 17
Jan 1, 2023at NENE 23 − 21
Sep 11, 2022at MIAMIA 20 − 7
Jan 9, 2022at MIAMIA 33 − 24
Sep 12, 2021at NEMIA 17 − 16

NE · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 22at CHI24 − 30L
Oct 18vs NYJ26 − 19W
Oct 11vs LV45 − 17W
Oct 4at BUF29 − 26W
Sep 27at JAX6 − 35L
Sep 20vs PIT20 − 3W
Sep 9at SEA10 − 13L
Feb 8vs SEA13 − 29L
Jan 25at DEN10 − 7W
Jan 18vs HOU28 − 16W

MIA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 25at NYJ28 − 25W
Oct 11vs CIN24 − 31L
Oct 4at MIN10 − 15L
Sep 27vs KC10 − 24L
Sep 20at SF13 − 35L
Sep 13at LV13 − 27L
Jan 4at NE10 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs TB20 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025vs CIN21 − 45L
Dec 15, 2025at PIT15 − 28L