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Panthers at Saints

NFL · Sunday, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT · Caesars Superdome · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 15

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Nov 1

Expected margin
CAR by 2.3
Expected score
CAR 26.2 – 23.9 NO
Expected total
50.1
PanthersThe matchupSaints
−101Our fair odds+101
26.2Expected points23.9
−0.25Power rating−0.48
25.4Points / game23.1
27.6Allowed / game27.7
364Total yards / game316
5.5Yards / play4.7
262Passing yards / game230
3−4Season record2−5
3−7Last 104−6
Bobby Brown III DT · Damien Lewis G
Ikem Ekwonu OT · Jaelan Phillips LB
Torricelli Simpkins III GOut (5 each)Mason Tipton WR · Nick Saldiveri OT
Bryan Bresee DT · Dillon Radunz G
Jordyn Tyson WR

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · NO chance
Our model fair50.2%49.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Panthers−10150%————
NONew Orleans Saints+10150%————
SpreadCAR by 2.3
CARCarolina Panthers−2.3our margin————
NONew Orleans Saints+2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 50.1
Over50.1our total————
Under50.1our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Carolina Panthers by 2.3 expected
Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 5%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 9%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 7%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%
← CAR wins byNO wins by →
Carolina Panthers wins by 3 or more53%
Carolina Panthers wins by 7 or more34%
Carolina Panthers wins by 10 or more26%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.1 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.565%
Total over 50.546%
Total over 57.530%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 53% completions, 218 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTdepth chart
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 67% completions, 173 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·NO
Oct 29 at GB
last game
Oct 25 vs PIT
16 days
days of rest
20 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Carolina Panthers
CARBobby Brown III DT · handOut
CARDamien Lewis G · kneeOut
CARIkem Ekwonu OT · right knee surgeryOut
CARJaelan Phillips LB · hamstringOut
CARTorricelli Simpkins III G · left ankleOut
CARCorey Bullock C · quadricepsQuestionable
CARWill Lee III CB · hamstringQuestionable
CARAkayleb Evans CB · triceps, back about Nov 30IR
CARBrady Christensen G · hamstringIR
CARCam Jackson DT · shoulder surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 8 more
New Orleans Saints
NOMason Tipton WR · legOut
NONick Saldiveri OT · left knee, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
NOCJ Donaldson RB · shoulderQuestionable
NOCesar Ruiz G · kneeQuestionable
NOJustin Reid S · concussionQuestionable
NONathan Shepherd DT · illnessQuestionable
NOBryan Bresee DT · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
NODillon Radunz G · knee - acl, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
NOJordyn Tyson WR · right hamstring strainIR
NOKelvin Banks Jr. OT · ankle surgery, back about Nov 29IR
and 4 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
CAR·NO
−0.25
rating (0 = average)
−0.48
25.4
points / game
23.1
27.6
points allowed / game
27.7
3−4
season record
2−5
1−2
home record
0−4
2−2
away record
2−1
L2
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
4−6
364
total yards / game
316
5.5
yards / play
4.7
262
passing yards / game
230
102
rushing yards / game
86
21.1
first downs / game
20.4
1.4
turnovers / game
1.9

Rating Trend

CAR · NO · 32 days
Carolina PanthersNew Orleans Saints
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 6−4
Dec 14, 2025at NONO 20 − 17
Nov 9, 2025at CARNO 17 − 7
Nov 3, 2024at CARCAR 23 − 22
Sep 8, 2024at NONO 47 − 10
Dec 10, 2023at NONO 28 − 6
Sep 18, 2023at CARNO 20 − 17
Jan 8, 2023at NOCAR 10 − 7
Sep 25, 2022at CARCAR 22 − 14
Jan 2, 2022at NONO 18 − 10
Sep 19, 2021at CARCAR 26 − 7

CAR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 29at GB19 − 27L
Oct 25vs TB13 − 43L
Oct 18at PHI25 − 14W
Oct 4vs DET32 − 26W
Sep 27at CLE18 − 21L
Sep 20at ATL34 − 3W
Sep 13vs CHI37 − 59L
Jan 10vs LAR31 − 34L
Jan 3at TB14 − 16L
Dec 28, 2025vs SEA10 − 27L

NO · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 25vs PIT10 − 16L
Oct 18at NYG34 − 27W
Oct 11vs MIN13 − 23L
Oct 5vs ATL24 − 45L
Sep 27vs LV27 − 35L
Sep 20at BAL24 − 17W
Sep 13at DET30 − 31L
Jan 4at ATL17 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at TEN34 − 26W
Dec 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 6W