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Dolphins at Colts

NFL · Sunday, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 15

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Nov 1

Expected margin
IND by 3.4
Expected score
IND 24.8 – 21.4 MIA
Expected total
46.1
DolphinsThe matchupColts
+164Our fair odds−164
21.4Expected points24.8
−0.59Power rating−0.28
16.3Points / game22.0
26.2Allowed / game25.7
294Total yards / game298
5.2Yards / play4.5
162Passing yards / game180
1−5Season record2−5
2−8Last 102−8
Darrell Baker Jr. CB · Kadyn Proctor OT
Cole Turner TE · De'Von Achane RB
Rene Konga DTOut (5 each)Anthony Gould WR · Justin Walley CB
Alec Pierce WR · Arden Key DE
Cam Taylor-Britt CB

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · IND chance
Our model fair37.9%62.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Dolphins+16438%————
INDIndianapolis Colts−16462%————
SpreadIND by 3.4
MIAMiami Dolphins+3.4our margin————
INDIndianapolis Colts−3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.1
Over46.1our total————
Under46.1our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indianapolis Colts by 3.4 expected
Miami Dolphins by 43 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 42 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 41 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 8%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 7%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 41 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 42 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 43 points: <1%
← MIA wins byIND wins by →
Indianapolis Colts wins by 3 or more53%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 7 or more37%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.1 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.566%
Total over 46.546%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
MIAMalik Willis · last 3 games: 58% completions, 143 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTdepth chart
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 55% completions, 215 yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·IND
Oct 25 at NYJ
last game
Oct 25 at MIN
20 days
days of rest
20 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Miami Dolphins
MIADarrell Baker Jr. CB · undisclosedOut
MIAKadyn Proctor OT · concussionOut
MIAJuJu Brents CB · neck concussionQuestionable
MIAReese Taylor CB · quadricepsQuestionable
MIACole Turner TE · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
MIADe'Von Achane RB · left knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
MIARene Konga DT · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
MIARonnie Harrison Jr. LB · hamstringIR
MIATrey Moore LB · ankle surgeryIR
Indianapolis Colts
INDAnthony Gould WR · concussionOut
INDJustin Walley CB · kneeOut
INDBryce Boettcher LB · groinQuestionable
INDDrew Ogletree TE · kneeQuestionable
INDSean McKeon TE · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027Questionable
INDAlec Pierce WR · left heelIR
INDArden Key DE · hamstringIR
INDCam Taylor-Britt CB · groin, back about Nov 29IR
INDCameron Mitchell CB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
INDCarson Towt TE · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 2 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
MIA·IND
−0.59
rating (0 = average)
−0.28
16.3
points / game
22.0
26.2
points allowed / game
25.7
1−5
season record
2−5
0−2
home record
1−2
1−3
away record
1−3
W1
streak
L3
2−8
last 10
2−8
294
total yards / game
298
5.2
yards / play
4.5
162
passing yards / game
180
132
rushing yards / game
118
16.7
first downs / game
19.3
1.3
turnovers / game
1.7

Rating Trend

MIA · IND · 32 days
Miami DolphinsIndianapolis Colts
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · IND 3−0
Sep 7, 2025at INDIND 33 − 8
Oct 20, 2024at INDIND 16 − 10
Oct 3, 2021at MIAIND 27 − 17

MIA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 25at NYJ28 − 25W
Oct 11vs CIN24 − 31L
Oct 4at MIN10 − 15L
Sep 27vs KC10 − 24L
Sep 20at SF13 − 35L
Sep 13at LV13 − 27L
Jan 4at NE10 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs TB20 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025vs CIN21 − 45L
Dec 15, 2025at PIT15 − 28L

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Oct 25at MIN10 − 16L
Oct 18vs TEN20 − 26L
Oct 11at PIT22 − 34L
Oct 4at WSH30 − 13W
Sep 27vs HOU19 − 17W
Sep 20at KC30 − 33L
Sep 13vs BAL23 − 41L
Jan 4at HOU30 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs JAX17 − 23L
Dec 22, 2025vs SF27 − 48L