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Steelers at Bengals

NFL · Sunday, Nov 15 · 7:20 PM CT · Paycor Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 15

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Nov 1

Expected margin
CIN by 4.7
Expected score
CIN 26.6 – 21.8 PIT
Expected total
48.4
SteelersThe matchupBengals
+151Our fair odds−151
21.8Expected points26.6
+0.21Power rating+0.19
21.9Points / game27.2
19.7Allowed / game20.3
324Total yards / game345
5.1Yards / play5.8
218Passing yards / game264
5−2Season record4−2
6−4Last 106−4
Brandin Echols CB · Doneiko Slaughter CB
Donte Kent CB · Max Hurleman RB
Cole Burgess WROut (5 each)Kyle Dugger S · Andrei Iosivas WR
Brian Parker II OT · Erick All Jr. TE
Ja'Sir Taylor CB

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CIN chance
Our model fair39.8%60.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Steelers+15140%————
CINCincinnati Bengals−15160%————
SpreadCIN by 4.7
PITPittsburgh Steelers+4.7our margin————
CINCincinnati Bengals−4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.4
Over48.4our total————
Under48.4our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Bengals by 4.7 expected
Pittsburgh Steelers by 44 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 43 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 42 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 41 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 40 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 7%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 7%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 41 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 42 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 43 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 44 points: <1%
← PIT wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 3 or more56%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 7 or more40%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 10 or more32%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.4 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.566%
Total over 48.547%
Total over 55.530%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 67% completions, 233 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTdepth chart
CINJoe Burrow · last 3 games: 72% completions, 303 yds/game, 9 TD, 2 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CIN
Oct 25 at NO
last game
Oct 25 at BAL
20 days
days of rest
20 days
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Pittsburgh Steelers
PITBrandin Echols CB · hamstringOut
PITDoneiko Slaughter CB · hamstringOut
PITDonte Kent CB · undisclosedOut
PITMax Hurleman RBOut
PITBen Skowronek WR · calfQuestionable
PITCole Burgess WR · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
PITDaequan Hardy CB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
PITDerrick Harmon DT · foot, back about Nov 15IR
PITGennings Dunker G · kneeIR
PITJack Driscoll OT · undisclosedIR
and 4 more
Cincinnati Bengals
CINKyle Dugger S · left quadricepsOut
CINJoe Giles-Harris LB · calfQuestionable
CINAndrei Iosivas WR · left thumb surgeryIR
CINBrian Parker II OT · undisclosedIR
CINErick All Jr. TE · right knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
CINJa'Sir Taylor CB · undisclosedIR
CINJalen Davis CB · left hamstringIR
CINSwayze Bozeman LB · right forearm fracture, back about Nov 23IR
CINTanner Hudson TE · pectoral strain, back about Feb 15, 2027IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
PIT·CIN
+0.21
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
21.9
points / game
27.2
19.7
points allowed / game
20.3
5−2
season record
4−2
3−0
home record
1−1
2−2
away record
3−1
W3
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
324
total yards / game
345
5.1
yards / play
5.8
218
passing yards / game
264
106
rushing yards / game
81
19.3
first downs / game
21.0
1.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

PIT · CIN · 32 days
Pittsburgh SteelersCincinnati Bengals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Sep 27at PITPIT 30 − 27
Nov 16, 2025at PITPIT 34 − 12
Oct 16, 2025at CINCIN 33 − 31
Jan 4, 2025at PITCIN 19 − 17
Dec 1, 2024at CINPIT 44 − 38
Dec 23, 2023at PITPIT 34 − 11
Nov 26, 2023at CINPIT 16 − 10
Nov 20, 2022at PITCIN 37 − 30
Sep 11, 2022at CINPIT 23 − 20
Nov 28, 2021at CINCIN 41 − 10

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Oct 25at NO16 − 10W
Oct 18at TB26 − 19W
Oct 11vs IND34 − 22W
Oct 1at CLE24 − 27L
Sep 27vs CIN30 − 27W
Sep 20at NE3 − 20L
Sep 13vs ATL20 − 13W
Jan 12vs HOU6 − 30L
Jan 4vs BAL26 − 24W
Dec 28, 2025at CLE6 − 13L

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 25at BAL35 − 13W
Oct 11at MIA31 − 24W
Oct 4vs JAX17 − 22L
Sep 27at PIT27 − 30L
Sep 20at HOU20 − 6W
Sep 13vs TB33 − 27W
Jan 4vs CLE18 − 20L
Dec 28, 2025vs ARI37 − 14W
Dec 21, 2025at MIA45 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs BAL0 − 24L