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Nuggets at Grizzlies

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 11 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 11

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Nov 10

Expected margin
DEN by 3.3
Expected score
DEN 117.7 – 114.4 MEM
Expected total
232.2
NuggetsThe matchupGrizzlies
−152Our fair odds+152
117.7Expected points114.4
+0.50Power rating−0.39
113.6Points / game117.9
112.8Allowed / game110.8
48.3FG%46.6
35.23P%39.1
42.3Rebounds / game48.1
5−4Season record7−3
5−5Last 107−3
Julian StrawtherOutKarim Lopez · Quinten Post
Richie Saunders · Scotty Pippen Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · MEM chance
Our model fair60.3%39.7%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket US63.3%42.3%
ProphetX61.1%41.5%
Novig60.0%40.5%
Full price table
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi1:31 AM CTPolymarket US1:31 AM CTProphetX1:29 AM CTNovig1:29 AM CT
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−15260%−16862.7%−17263.3%−15761.1%−15060.0%
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+15240%+14041.7%+13742.3%+14141.5%+14740.5%
SpreadDEN by 3.3
DENDenver Nuggets−3.3our margin−3.5 −12154.7%−3.5 −11954.4%−3.5 −11453.3%−3.5 −11152.5%
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+3.3our margin+3.5 +10149.7%+3.5 −10651.4%+3.5 +10249.6%+3.5 +10648.5%
Totalwe expect 232.2
Over232.2our totalo228.5 −12154.7%o228.5 −12455.4%o228.5 −11653.8%o228.5 −11353.0%
Under232.2our totalu228.5 +10149.7%u228.5 −10150.4%u228.5 +10249.6%u228.5 +11147.5%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 3.3 expected
Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%
← DEN wins byMEM wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more49%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more34%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,609 past NBA games.

Total range

232.2 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.548%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,609 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraylast game
GChristian Braunlast game
FAaron Gordonlast game
FCameron Johnsonlast game
CNikola Jokiclast game
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromelast game
FCedric Cowardlast game
FCameron Boozerlast game
FJaylen Wellslast game
CZach Edeylast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·MEM
Nov 9 at HOU
last game
Nov 9 at TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 10, 6:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENJulian Strawther · left knee sprainOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMKarim Lopez · g league - on assignmentOut
MEMQuinten Post · concussion protocolOut
MEMRichie Saunders · right knee surgeryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · lumbar disc herniationOut
MEMIsaiah Stewart · right knee bone bruiseQuestionable
MEMJahmai Mashack · g league - two-wayQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
DEN·MEM
+0.50
rating (0 = average)
−0.39
113.6
points / game
117.9
112.8
points allowed / game
110.8
5−4
season record
7−3
2−2
home record
2−3
3−2
away record
5−0
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
48.3
FG%
46.6
35.2
3P%
39.1
42.3
rebounds / game
48.1
26.9
assists / game
26.5
14.1
turnovers / game
16.8
47.6
points in paint / game
46.6

Rating Trend

DEN · MEM · 21 days
Denver NuggetsMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 2−8
Apr 8at DENDEN 136 − 119
Mar 18at MEMMEM 125 − 118
Feb 11at DENDEN 122 − 116
Nov 24, 2025at MEMDEN 125 − 115
Apr 11, 2025at DENDEN 117 − 109
Nov 19, 2024at MEMDEN 122 − 110
Nov 17, 2024at MEMMEM 105 − 90
Apr 14, 2024at MEMDEN 126 − 111
Mar 25, 2024at DENDEN 128 − 103
Dec 28, 2023at DENDEN 142 − 105

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 9at HOU100 − 110L
Nov 7at IND114 − 102W
Nov 4vs TOR128 − 109W
Nov 2vs POR110 − 118L
Oct 30at PHX127 − 120W
Oct 28at NO104 − 91W
Oct 26vs GS114 − 134L
Oct 24vs NO141 − 135W
Oct 22at OKC84 − 96L
Apr 30at MIN98 − 110L

MEM · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Nov 9at TOR118 − 102W
Nov 6vs OKC97 − 128L
Nov 4vs IND103 − 107L
Nov 2vs NO134 − 135L
Oct 31vs SAC136 − 105W
Oct 29at POR124 − 103W
Oct 26at UTAH110 − 105W
Oct 25at SAC123 − 112W
Oct 23at GS111 − 108W
Oct 21vs UTAH123 − 103W