bayesRatings

Nuggets at Rockets

NBA · Monday, Nov 9 · 7:30 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final DEN 100 – HOU 110
← NBA / Nov 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN24162832100
HOU32222333110
Team box
DEN·HOU
37-83
field goals
41-91
8-29
3-pointers
14-38
18-25
free throws
14-17
39
rebounds
51
20
assists
29
12
turnovers
11
40
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN393822
Nikola JokicDEN3925169
Kevin DurantHOU3623128
Alperen SengunHOU3520128
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU381473
Tari EasonHOU191252

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +19
DEN +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 19 · DEN 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 38%, HOU 62% · Updated Nov 9

Expected margin
HOU by 4.4
Expected score
HOU 115.0 – 110.6 DEN
Expected total
225.6
NuggetsThe matchupRockets
+165Our fair odds−165
110.6Expected points115.0
+0.54Power rating+0.75
115.2Points / game116.0
113.1Allowed / game107.0
48.8FG%48.1
36.13P%37.1
42.8Rebounds / game44.0
5−3Season record7−3
6−4Last 107−3
Julian StrawtherOutClint Capela · Julian Phillips
Oscar Tshiebwe · Quadir Copeland
Steven Adams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · HOU chance
Our model fair37.8%62.2%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket US38.2%67.2%
ProphetX37.8%64.7%
Novig36.5%64.0%
Full price table
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:30 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 7:29 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 7:27 PM CTNovigpre-game · 7:29 PM CT
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets+16538%+15938.6%+16238.2%+16537.8%+17436.5%
HOUHouston Rockets−16562%−19165.6%−20567.2%−18464.7%−17864.0%
SpreadHOU by 4.4
DENDenver Nuggets+4.4our margin+4.5 −10350.7%+4.5 −10651.4%+4.5 −10050.0%+4.5 +10449.0%
HOUHouston Rockets−4.4our margin−4.5 −12154.7%−4.5 −11954.4%−4.5 −11252.9%−4.5 −10852.0%
Totalwe expect 225.6
Over225.6our totalo224.5 −10751.8%o224.5 −11052.4%o224.5 −10651.5%o224.5 +10050.0%
Under225.6our totalu224.5 −11252.7%u224.5 −11453.4%u224.5 −11152.7%u224.5 −10451.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 4.4 expected
Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%
← DEN wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more52%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more37%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,609 past NBA games.

Total range

225.6 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,609 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Houston Rockets
GFred VanVleetstarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·HOU
Nov 7 at IND
last game
Nov 7 at PHX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 9, 10:00 AM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENJulian Strawther · left knee sprainOut
Houston Rockets
HOUClint Capela · right ankle sprainOut
HOUJulian Phillips · g league - two-wayOut
HOUOscar Tshiebwe · illnessOut
HOUQuadir Copeland · g league - two-wayOut
HOUSteven Adams · right soleus strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
DEN·HOU
+0.54
rating (0 = average)
+0.75
115.2
points / game
116.0
113.1
points allowed / game
107.0
5−3
season record
7−3
2−2
home record
4−1
3−1
away record
3−2
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
7−3
48.8
FG%
48.1
36.1
3P%
37.1
42.8
rebounds / game
44.0
27.8
assists / game
26.9
14.4
turnovers / game
15.7
48.5
points in paint / game
46.0

Rating Trend

DEN · HOU · 20 days
Denver NuggetsHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 4−6
Mar 11at DENDEN 129 − 93
Dec 20, 2025at DENHOU 115 − 101
Dec 15, 2025at DENDEN 128 − 125
Nov 21, 2025at HOUDEN 112 − 109
Apr 13, 2025at HOUDEN 126 − 111
Mar 23, 2025at HOUDEN 116 − 111
Jan 15, 2025at DENHOU 128 − 108
Dec 8, 2023at DENHOU 114 − 106
Nov 29, 2023at DENDEN 134 − 124
Nov 24, 2023at HOUHOU 105 − 86

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 7at IND114 − 102W
Nov 4vs TOR128 − 109W
Nov 2vs POR110 − 118L
Oct 30at PHX127 − 120W
Oct 28at NO104 − 91W
Oct 26vs GS114 − 134L
Oct 24vs NO141 − 135W
Oct 22at OKC84 − 96L
Apr 30at MIN98 − 110L
Apr 27vs MIN125 − 113W

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Nov 7at PHX99 − 102L
Nov 4vs MIN107 − 117L
Nov 2vs BOS109 − 93W
Oct 31vs OKC119 − 98W
Oct 30at DAL111 − 116L
Oct 28at MIL132 − 100W
Oct 26vs ATL120 − 110W
Oct 24at ATL121 − 114W
Oct 23at SA114 − 110W
Oct 21vs DAL128 − 110W