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Falcons at Buccaneers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 1 · 12:00 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 1

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
TB by 1.3
Expected score
TB 23.1 – 21.8 ATL
Expected total
44.9
FalconsThe matchupBuccaneers
+113Our fair odds−113
21.8Expected points23.1
−0.09Power rating−0.11
24.4Points / game23.1
24.7Allowed / game21.6
337Total yards / game297
5.6Yards / play4.8
197Passing yards / game150
3−4Season record2−5
6−4Last 103−7
Anterio Thompson DT · Brian Robinson Jr. RB
DeAngelo Malone LB · Storm Norton OT
Beaux Collins WROut (5 each)Emeka Egbuka WR · Christian Rozeboom LB
Jalen McMillan WR · Josh Hayes CB
Mohamed Kamara LB

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · TB chance
Our model fair47.0%53.0%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket US46.2%57.5%
ProphetX45.9%56.6%
Novig45.0%56.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:21 AM CTPolymarket US4:21 AM CTProphetX4:17 AM CTNovig4:10 AM CT
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Falcons+11347%+11446.7%+11646.2%+11845.9%+12245.0%
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−11353%−13757.7%−13557.5%−13156.6%−12756.0%
SpreadTB by 1.3
ATLAtlanta Falcons+1.3our margin+2.5 −11252.7%+2.5 −11252.7%+2.5 −10852.0%+2.5 −10651.5%
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−1.3our margin−2.5 −10751.8%−2.5 −10551.2%−2.5 −10250.5%−2.5 +10249.5%
Totalwe expect 44.9
Over44.9our totalo43.5 −10350.7%o43.5 −10350.7%o43.5 −10050.0%o43.5 +10449.0%
Under44.9our totalu43.5 −11653.7%u43.5 −11453.2%u43.5 −11152.7%u43.5 −10852.0%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1.3 expected
Atlanta Falcons by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 5%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 9%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 7%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 41 points: <1%
← ATL wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more47%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more31%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.9 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.569%
Total over 44.548%
Total over 51.530%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 64% completions, 226 yds/game, 7 TD, 0 INTdepth chart
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 57% completions, 154 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·TB
Oct 25 vs SF
last game
Oct 25 at CAR
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Atlanta Falcons
ATLAnterio Thompson DT · undisclosedOut
ATLBrian Robinson Jr. RB · hamstring, back about Nov 8Out
ATLDeAngelo Malone LB · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
ATLJames Pearce Jr. LB · suspension, back about Nov 8Suspension
ATLStorm Norton OT · foot surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
ATLAvieon Terrell CB · back, back about Nov 1Questionable
ATLBilly Bowman Jr. CB · hamstring, back about Nov 1Questionable
ATLCharles Snowden LB · back, back about Nov 1Questionable
ATLDivine Deablo LB · forearm, back about Nov 1Questionable
ATLOlamide Zaccheaus WR · shoulder, back about Nov 1Questionable
and 9 more
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TBEmeka Egbuka WR · foot, back about Nov 8Out
TBKenny Gainwell RB · hip, back about Nov 1Questionable
TBLuke Goedeke OT · calf, back about Nov 1Questionable
TBChristian Rozeboom LB · finger, back about Nov 30IR
TBJalen McMillan WR · left knee - pcl sprain, back about Nov 22IR
TBJosh Hayes CB · knee surgery, back about Nov 22IR
TBMohamed Kamara LB · left knee sprain, back about Feb 15, 2027IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
ATL·TB
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
24.4
points / game
23.1
24.7
points allowed / game
21.6
3−4
season record
2−5
1−3
home record
0−4
2−1
away record
2−1
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
337
total yards / game
297
5.6
yards / play
4.8
197
passing yards / game
150
140
rushing yards / game
146
19.0
first downs / game
18.3
1.7
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

ATL · TB · 30 days
Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Dec 11, 2025at TBATL 29 − 28
Sep 7, 2025at ATLTB 23 − 20
Oct 27, 2024at TBATL 31 − 26
Oct 3, 2024at ATLATL 36 − 30
Dec 10, 2023at ATLTB 29 − 25
Oct 22, 2023at TBATL 16 − 13
Jan 8, 2023at ATLATL 30 − 17
Oct 9, 2022at TBTB 21 − 15
Dec 5, 2021at ATLTB 30 − 17
Sep 19, 2021at TBTB 48 − 25

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 25vs SF29 − 20W
Oct 18vs CHI23 − 31L
Oct 11vs BAL23 − 30L
Oct 5at NO45 − 24W
Sep 24at GB35 − 14W
Sep 20vs CAR3 − 34L
Sep 13at PIT13 − 20L
Jan 4vs NO19 − 17W
Dec 29, 2025vs LAR27 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025at ARI26 − 19W

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 25at CAR43 − 13W
Oct 18vs PIT19 − 26L
Oct 8at DAL24 − 16W
Oct 4vs GB14 − 17L
Sep 27vs MIN16 − 23L
Sep 20vs CLE19 − 23L
Sep 13at CIN27 − 33L
Jan 3vs CAR16 − 14W
Dec 28, 2025at MIA17 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at CAR20 − 23L